Despite the stuttering of the economic engine, the german labor market is still running at around.
The difficult order situation of some companies has so far only been felt by employees in so-called helper professions and low-skilled immigrants, according to daniel terzenbach, a member of the federal agency’s executive board, in nurnberg. "In this area, the weaker economy is now visibly touching the labor market," the BA manager revealed when the july unemployment figures were published.
According to its figures, a total of 2.275 million men and women were out of work in july. That is 59.000 more unemployed than in june, but 49.000 less than a year ago, said terzenbach, who stood in for BA chief detlef scheele, who was on vacation. The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 5.0 percent. Despite this, the federal agency recorded the lowest level of unemployment in july since german reunification, as a spokesman for the agency emphasized.
An increase in the number of unemployed at the beginning of the summer break is not unusual, even if it was somewhat stronger this year than in the previous boom years, said terzenbach. Many companies postpone hiring until after summer break. "Furthermore, some young people are not immediately taken on after completing their training. Even students don’t always go straight to work after graduation."The economic downturn, on the other hand, played hardly any role in the july increase. Without seasonal influences, the number of job seekers in july would only have risen by 1,000.
Therefore, according to terzenbach’s assessment, there can be no talk of a trend reversal, despite the further dampening of the economic outlook. Even if the number of vacancies, especially in the cyclically sensitive temporary employment industry, was falling, he saw no signs of an impending job crisis. The demand for skilled workers remains high and the risk of being laid off is currently lower than ever before.
And the trend in short-time work is anything but worrying. The number of short-time workers had risen to 41,000 in may.000 at a normal level. However, the interest of companies threatened by a slump in orders in short-time work has recently grown. In june, the federal agency recorded 16,400 reports of short-time work. Compared to the previous year, their number has more than doubled, terzenbach reported. Nevertheless, the situation is still undramatic: "during the financial crisis in 2009, one in 20. Workers on short time. Currently, one in 1,000."
Federal labor minister hubertus heil continues to be satisfied with the current labor market situation. But should the economy become much more depressed in the future, "we have the appropriate labor market policy instruments to respond to this appropriately. This includes the necessary reserves at the federal employment agency, which will help to secure employment in the event of a crisis by means of short-time working arrangements," the SPD politician emphasized.
So far, however, the federal agency sees no reason to revise its current labor market forecast for 2019. So far, the nurnberg-based job placement agencies are assuming an average of 2.2 million job seekers in 2019, based on forecasts from their in-house research institute IAB. This was around 140.000 fewer than in 2018. However, depending on further developments, the somewhat more pessimistic forecast of 2.3 million could also be fulfilled.
The federal agency is optimistic about the dynamic development of employment. According to the latest data from the federal statistical office, the number of people in work rose further in june to 45.30 million, 8,000 more than in the previous month. Compared to the previous year, there were 410.000 more employees. According to the BA, the increase is largely due to a higher number of employees subject to social insurance contributions. According to the BA’s projections, 33.41 million people had regular jobs in may. Adjusted for the season, that was a plus of 20 from april to may.000.